New York City is using ranked-choice voting in its Democratic mayoral primary election on Tuesday, and it could have a big impact on the outcome given the striking contrast between the two top-polling candidates: Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani.
The current mayor, Eric Adams, is not in the primary. The ex-Democrat still plans to run in the Nov. 4 mayoral election as an independent, but appears to have been irreversibly damaged by corruption allegations.
No Republican, meanwhile, has seriously contested the mayoralty since former mayor Michael Bloomberg left the GOP in 2007. The Republicans have settled on their candidate: Guardian Angels founder and radio host Curtis Sliwa, who received just 28 per cent of the 2021 vote in essentially a two-person race with Adams.
In other words, the Democratic primary winner is the clear favourite to become mayor.
For Cuomo, it would represent a fairly quick comeback after he resigned as New York state governor in 2021 following sexual harassment allegations made by more than a dozen women. Cuomo denied the allegations but admitted to using outdated or condescending language with women.
He also faces the threat of a federal indictment related to his time as governor.
Mamdani could ascend with help from a powerful grassroots movement, but with little in the way of leadership experience to helm a metropolis with an estimated 300,000 municipal employees. In addition, his staunch pro-Palestinian statements have caused unease in some quarters of a city which has seen pitched battles and protests both on campuses and off, since the war in Gaza precipitated by Hamas’s attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.
An Emerson College poll found Mamdani receiving about two-thirds support from respondents under 50, while Cuomo held a significant advantage among older respondents.
Rather than pick just one candidate on Tuesday, primary voters get to rank five in order of preference. Those votes could determine a winner if no candidate reaches more than 50 per cent of the first-choice votes.
Supporters of the system say it encourages citizens to be more invested in the outcome, and they don’t have to make compromises with their top pick.
But the ranked-choice votes wouldn’t be counted until July 1, and in 2021, there were more than a few hiccups in the primary process. With growing distrust in election results in the U.S., voters may not understand how a candidate who seemed to have a comfortable lead in first-place votes on election night could ultimately lose if they fare poorly in securing second- or third-choice votes.
Cuomo: Experienced, controversial
Cuomo, 67, has been in the public eye for more than four decades, helping on his father Mario Cuomo’s gubernatorial campaigns. He then served as housing secretary in Bill Clinton’s first administration, and just a few days ago the former president endorsed him.
Cuomo has more individual donors among retired New Yorkers and residents of some expensive Manhattan neighbourhoods, a database of donors on the New York City Campaign Finance Board website shows. As well, the billionaire Bloomberg has poured $8.3 million US into a political action committee to support Cuomo, who he says is the right person to protect New York from the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies.
Cuomo brings a pugnacious style to the table. He has more than three of years experience as state attorney general, followed by a decade as governor.
As governor, he earned praise for authoritative and empathetic news conferences during the early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic, occurring while Trump as president offered a series of mixed statements, many downplaying the virus.
Cuomo capitalized on the good PR by writing a book about leadership lessons, but he was later accused of presenting lawmakers with misleading statements on New York’s nursing home deaths during the pandemic’s first year.
The Justice Department in Trump’s second term has opened an investigation, though many Cuomo supporters think it was motivated by the animus between the two men, as others accused of lying to Congress have not been investigated.
Mamdani: Buzzworthy, unproven
Like Trump, Mamdani hails from Queens, which is about the extent of their similarities.
Mamdani, 33, was born in Uganda to a family of Indian descent and could become the city’s first Muslim mayor.
He is also a member of the Democratic Socialists of America — not necessarily a deal-breaker for New Yorkers given that late mayor David Dinkins was also a member for a time.
Mamdani, with four years of experience as a New York state legislator, has campaigned on affordability and cost of living, floating the idea of free bus transit for some. The New York Times editorial board, among others, denounced many of his ideas as unrealistic.
He has accused Cuomo of using outdated language when it comes to New York’s population of unauthorized immigrants.
“A disgraced former governor who describes undocumented immigrants as ‘illegals’ is not what we need,” Mamdani said in an interview with the Bulwark site. He also called Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) a “rogue” agency.
Mamdani has received more small donations than any candidate for mayor in the past three decades, and his progressive credentials are not in doubt — he has received the endorsements of U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the U.S. Congress member whose district includes parts of New York City.
Mamdani is sharply critical of Israeli policies, but has denounced allegations he’s antisemitic.
The other Democratic candidates
New York City Comptroller Brad Lander is polling around 10 per cent in multiple polls with respect to first-place votes and could emerge as the preferred second choice of many Cuomo or Mamdani voters. An outspoken opponent of Trump’s immigration crackdown, Lander was in the public eye last week when he was briefly detained by federal agents.
The eight other primary candidates include City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, state Sen. Zellnor Myrie, hedge fund executive Whitney Tilson and former city comptroller Scott Stringer.
While no formal alliance has been announced, a few of the lagging candidates have said that Cuomo is particularly undeserving, and should be placed far down the ballot rankings — or not ranked at all.
“Let’s make sure Andrew Cuomo gets nowhere near city hall,” Lander told WNYC Radio on Monday.
Whither Eric Adams?
Adams, a retired police captain and former state lawmaker and Brooklyn official, was elected in 2021 as a centrist Democrat, but three years later was formally accused of accepting illegal campaign contributions and travel discounts from a Turkish official and others. In addition, some members of Adams’s administration have been embroiled in other scandals.
Adams’s best chance is that whoever wins — either Cuomo or Mamdani — will be so loathed that he can carve out his own comeback, though so far there appears no groundswell supporting his claims of being victimized with an unwarranted prosecution.
Adams cultivated a warm relationship with Trump, especially after both were indicted, and ultimately left the Democrats. The Justice Department earlier this year decided to drop the case against Adams, a move the presiding judge was troubled by but essentially powerless to stop.
Democrats cried foul and alleged a quid pro quo was at play — dropped charges in exchange for co-operation with the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration enforcement and deportation plans. Adams denied that was the case.
Cuomo and Mamdani don’t agree on much, but each has said they wouldn’t follow the Adams example and would push back when warranted against Trump’s immigration officials.